shepherd.bet: forecast together
shepherd.bet is an internal prediction market where your team bets on company outcomes.
Get startedThe system
Everything you need to know to start matching.
- Offers
- Choose YES or NO, your maximum loss, and what you want to win. Other members can accept all or part of the offer.
- Markets
- Admins create binary or custom multi-outcome markets with clear resolution criteria and exactly one winning outcome.
- Matching
- When someone accepts an offer, both sides get a matched position. Quotes reflect open offers and recent matches.
- Resolution
- When the outcome is known, the market records YES or NO. Participants handle settlement directly.
- Leaderboard
- Realized profit and loss from resolved matches creates a monthly performance view.
Design principles
Why the system works this way.
Explicit terms
Every offer shows the exact maximum loss and potential profit for both sides before anyone accepts it.
Records, not custody
Dollar amounts make the terms easy to understand, but shepherd.bet never holds funds or records payment settlement.
Signal, not surveys
Surveys capture what people are willing to say. Markets capture what people are willing to back with explicit stakes.