shepherd.bet: forecast together

shepherd.bet is an internal prediction market where your team bets on company outcomes.

The system

Everything you need to know to start trading.

Points: Everyone gets the same monthly allocation. Use-it-or-lose-it — create urgency while incentivizing participation.
Markets: Admins create binary or multi-outcome markets tied to real company questions. Anyone can propose one.
Trading: Spend points to buy positions. Prices move as the crowd trades. You can sell before resolution.
Resolution: When the outcome is known, the market resolves. Correct positions pay out, incorrect ones don’t.
Leaderboard: Scored by net profit each month. Top performers win real prizes. Resets monthly.

Design principles

Why the system works this way.

Equal starts, every month

Everyone gets the same points. No advantage for joining early, spending more, or gaming rollover. The leaderboard measures predictive skill, not tenure.

Points, not dollars

Real money creates legal headaches and risk aversion. Points keep it lightweight — people experiment, take positions they believe in, and aren’t afraid to be wrong.

Signal, not surveys

Surveys capture what people are willing to say. Markets capture what people are willing to bet. When points are on the line, you get honest conviction instead of polite consensus.